WTC final: Qualification scenario for South Africa, India, Australia

After a dominant 2-0 series sweep over Sri Lanka, South Africa has surged to the top of the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) points table, intensifying the battle for a spot in the 2023-25 final.

As many as five teams, including India, Australia, and South Africa, are still in contention, with Pakistan holding a slim chance of advancing, contingent on favourable results.

As the current table toppers, the Proteas in the driver’s seat. To guarantee a place in the final, they need just one win from their remaining two Tests against Pakistan at home.

A 1-1 draw in this series could still see India and Australia through, depending on their results.

However, if South Africa loses 0-1 to Pakistan, they will rely on Australia winning no more than two of their remaining Tests and India securing only one victory in Australia.

India’s road to the final took a hit last month after their 0-3 defeat to New Zealand at home.

However, they bounced back with a victory in the Perth Test against Australia, before the hosts leveled the series in Adelaide.

With a current points percentage (PCT) of 57.29, India can still guarantee themselves a top-two finish by securing two wins and a draw from their remaining three Tests in Australia.

In the event of a 2-3 series loss to Australia, India will be hoping for a 0-2 defeat for South Africa against Pakistan and that Australia does not lose in Sri Lanka to remain in the hunt for the final.

Australia remains in a strong position, with a PCT of 55.26.

To secure their place in the top two, they need at least two wins from their remaining three Tests against India.

Even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, their PCT would still remain safe from both India and Sri Lanka.

However, if Australia loses 2-3 to India, they will need to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 or rely on the outcome of the South Africa vs Pakistan series to keep their final hopes alive.

Sri Lanka’s qualification hopes are hanging by a thread.

They must beat Australia 2-0 to bring their PCT to 53.85, which would also require Australia to lose 2-1 to India.

Additionally, for Sri Lanka to surpass South Africa’s PCT, the Proteas would need to lose 2-0 to Pakistan.

Several teams, including England, New Zealand, West Indies, and Bangladesh, are already out of final contention.